Validation of European-scale simulated wind speed and wind generation time series
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper presents a validation of atmospheric reanalysis data sets for simulating onshore wind generation time series large-scale energy system studies. The three reanalyses are the ERA5, New European Wind Atlas (NEWA) and DTU’s previous European-level (EIWR). An optional scaling is applied to match microscale mean speeds reported in Global version 2 (GWA2). speed used account effects terrain on distributions. power fleet 2015–2018 simulated, with commissioning new plants (WPPs) considered each year. A generic wake model implemented include losses that layout agnostic; captures expected as function given technical characteristics WPP. We validate both point measurement time-series aggregated at country-level. measurements from 32 tall meteorological masts speed, while production four years twelve countries simulated country-level production. Various metrics rank models according variables interest: descriptive statistics, distributions, daily patterns, auto-correlation spatial-correlation. find NEWA outperforms ERA5 EIWR but, expected, no able fully describe single point. found be necessary distribution country-level, NEWA-GWA2 ERA5-GWA2 showing highest accuracy precision time-series. • Several (ERA5, EIWR), without micro-scale scaling. Wake modeled based information individual plants. Measured not part calibration. Microscale reduces bias uncertainty predictions. produces accurate simulations.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Applied Energy
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['0306-2619', '1872-9118']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117794